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Quarterbacks ruled the NFL season, with Patrick Mahomes model had its best and worst picks of the season, relative to the old system.


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How Our NFL Predictions Work | FiveThirtyEight
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NFL Elo Ratings – FiveThirtyEight
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Which Picks Did NFL Mock Drafts Get Most Wrong? By Josh Hermsmeyer. Filed under NFL · Indiana v Michigan. Apr. 25,


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FiveThirtyEight's NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl


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The Chiefs Were On Their Way To A Loss. Then Patrick Mahomes Turned It On. By Josh Hermsmeyer. Filed under NFL · SBLiveBlog×3-NOLIVE. Feb.


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FiveThirtyEight's NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl


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Can you outsmart our NFL picks? FiveThirtyEight forecasts every game using an Elo-based model. See if you can do better.


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FiveThirtyEight's NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the.


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FiveThirtyEight's NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl


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Quarterbacks ruled the NFL season, with Patrick Mahomes model had its best and worst picks of the season, relative to the old system.


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And, of course, it also helped that the new system did much better in the conference championships and the Super Bowl. Speaking of which, congrats to Jordan Sweeney, who led all readers in the postseason with points, and to Griffin Colaizzi, who used the Super Bowl to pull ahead and win the full-season contest with 1, And a big thanks to everyone who played all season! Footnotes So if I said the Miami Sharks had a 75 percent chance of winning and they won, that would be a Brier score of 1 — 0. Allen HOU Watson 35 22 0. One simple way to judge prediction accuracy is to look at how close the predicted point spread came to the actual score differential of each game squaring the errors to give a larger penalty to bad misses. Sometimes adjusting for this resulted in an overcorrection, such as when Pittsburgh was down to third-string QB Devlin Hodges in Week 6 yet somehow managed to still win. And by that standard, our new Elo ratings basically performed as expected. Allen CLE Mayfield 58 41 0. Neil Paine is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight. Now that the season is over, in the spirit of checking our work , we wanted to look back at the season and see how well the new system did — and whether it improved on our old, simple Elo system from years past. Net Pts Week Games Avg. And in that department, new Elo beat old Elo this season, albeit by a smaller margin than we might have expected based on the preceding five seasons. But our preferred way to judge the accuracy of a forecast is using Brier scores , which are essentially the average squared error between a probabilistic forecast and what actually happened. Season total.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Quarterbacks were in control of the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, too, as a key factor of the new version of our Elo rating system , which adjusted for the performance of every starting QB. Our backtesting suggested that there are real predictive effects to late-season QB hot and cold streaks, and that favorites tend to play better in the postseason, but both of those factors ended up haunting the new model in that pair of upsets. Although there are a few areas of improvement to potentially investigate over the offseason, it was encouraging that the new system outperfomed the old system by almost precisely what we expected based on our backtesting. Very early in the season, new Elo had an edge, perhaps because it was accounting for the many quarterback injuries that beset teams during the first few weeks. If they lost, however, my Brier score would be 0 — 0. Overall in the playoffs, new Elo had a worse Brier score 0. It was a bit of an unpredictable NFL season according to either system, particularly during the playoffs , but the improvement in Brier score from the old version of Elo 0. Then things in the league got weird. Allen ARI Murray 54 35 0. So if I said the Miami Sharks had a 75 percent chance of winning and they won, that would be a Brier score of 1 — 0.