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Lela Alkhazishvili 20/05/2020

It is my belief that a recession, mild or severe, is better than odds on next year. Like Trump, she lost the vote, but the intricacies of the electoral system delivered her into office. At this point, I think Ardern is better than even money to lose next year. Which brings us to our own election next year. Economics and politics are accommodating bedfellows and my second forecast is the US election. Such a strategy is easier in practice than in theory. The game is to take every bet where you think the bookies have it wrong and to ignore every bet, no matter how certain they appear, where the odds are not in your favour. He's more probably going to be a one term president. A strong economy is a pre-requisite for a Republican win next year, but it does not guarantee it. With these caveats, let me give you some insights where I think that the rest of the market has the odds of future events wrong. While she can claim some success in passing laws to ban things; guns, gas, plastic bags and carbon, this isn't enough to warrant re-election. It could happen, but I wouldn't put money on it.

I am, I should disclose, a betting man and the secret to making a quid out of games of chance isn't correctly guessing the future but only gambling when you think the rest of the market has under-priced an event occurring.

For over a decade the west has been riding a wave of loose monetary policy and Keynesian fiscal expansion. If I were a betting man, and I am, I'd guess that the chances of my predictions being accurate are lower than what I believe them to be.

Stocks, property and bond prices continue to rise with each cut of wholesale rates, even as these fall are pokerstars paypal 2020 consider zero.

In a normal business cycle this recovery would have ended two or three years back.

He lost last time by three million votes. If you took this bet ninety times at a dollar, your horse would come in ten times.

Sadly, the demise of iPredict means I can no longer test my wits against others in the market and it is only fair to disclose that my past predictions of economic collapse have proved wrong.

The prospects of a gambling on christmas day nz 2020 worse than are low, but it is a lot higher than zero, which is what a casual reader of the business media would assume. Happy New Year New Zealand. Damien GrantDec 29 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's Christmas message for Getty Images.

Most professional gamblers have a few good years and then succumb to hubris and alcohol before winding up in dodgy saloons passing on betting strategies to delinquents. He isn't. The consensus in polite society is that Jacinda Ardern is a wonderful person and we would be churlish to tarnish her Wikipedia page by voting her out after a single term.

He looks likely to repeat this and while the electoral gambling on christmas day nz 2020 maths click change, the Democrats strategies gambling on christmas day nz 2020 will.

Such an outcome is a possible consequence from the unprecedented experiment in open-ended fiscal and monetary expansion during rosy economic times. We would have had a recession and companies still in business only because the cost of servicing their enormous debt is close to zero would have been cleared out.

Let's take horse racing. Jacinda Ardern's Government has been a "cavalcade of incompetence," writes Damien Grant. Most commentators, including the always optimistic Treasury, places the risks far lower. Meanwhile most media commentators have been blindsided by their enthusiasm for her abundant personal qualities and have engaged a wilful blindness to the failings of her administration.

Traders on the New York Stock Exchange have enjoyed a seemingly endless surge in share prices in recent years.

If the bookies have the odds at ten to one, but you think the probability is only nine to one, you take the bet. Still, I used to congregate in the same saloons as professional gamblers and I picked up a few tricks. Each win would be worth ten dollars, returning you a hundred dollars for a ninety-dollar outlay. The big one is the proximity of the next recession. Yet, despite enough warning bells clanging so incessantly to awaken a zombie to consciousness no one seems to care or even notice. Many commentators seem to think Trump is a near certainty for re-election. This may be true, but if the adage that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them is true, then Ardern's toast is about to get burnt. A less dramatic but ultimately worse economic outcome that is never discussed is a Japanese style stagnation of decades of low growth, the beginnings of which may already be upon us, with economic growth falling in most OECD nations from a robust three to under two; roughly equal to the population growth, despite unprecedented economic stimulus. Her administration has been a cavalcade of incompetence and, going from the stench around the NZ First Foundation, possibly worse. The odds of a second term for America's favourite reality TV star are about as good as me watching a full episode of Shortland Street. I don't know my geldings from my greens and, accordingly, I've never placed a serious bet on the outcome of a few galloping nags. Talk of a recession implies some brief drop in growth, not the evisceration of our financial and equities markets. He's also been a terrible president on any objective measure except the number of people he's killed in the Middle East. This could happen again, but it probably won't.